Why Yau-Man Lost
Survivor: Fiji – Why Yau-Man Lost by David Bloomberg -- 05/15/2007 Yau-Man was the most popular Survivor: Fiji contestant, both among viewers and his peers. But he didn’t end up with the money! The deal that seemingly led to his departure has already received a lot of scrutiny and discussion. But is that all there is to it? Why did Yau-Man lose? It might seem like we can wrap up this article pretty quickly by simply saying that Yau-Man was sent packing because Dreamz decided not to uphold his end of the deal they’d made. But it’s never that easy. There are many factors that go into an outcome like this. So why did Yau-Man lose? We need to analyze all of those factors in a structured manner. To do so, we use What Fiji Survivors Should Have Learned. Let’s see what we can find out. Yau-Man showed a good understanding of the first rule, which talks about scheming and plotting. He came to Survivor looking to form a good, solid alliance. He even researched the show by looking at websites, including RealityNewsOnline (Hi, Yau-Man!). Yau-Man told me that he did not intend to jump around to different alliances, but rather to stick to one good one – and he did. We’ll discuss this more later in the third rule. Yau-Man seemed to be on top of the game throughout his time there. He thought far ahead, making plans, setting all the pieces in place. It was all strategy, and he plotted his path quite well. One issue that of course raises questions is the deal he offered to Dreamz. He gave away the truck in return for Dreamz to help him in a very specific circumstance. The circumstance came to pass, and Dreamz of course failed to come through. Was Yau-Man wrong to even offer the deal? I think we have to say yes, and Yau-Man has even agreed that it was an incorrect move. He was thinking about how to best make it past the final four. We have to give him credit for thinking that far in advance and plotting out the possibilities – on Survivor, it sometimes seems people barely think about the next vote, let alone the endgame. Yau-Man believed he could make it to the final four. But he was worried that Cassandra and Dreamz would turn on him at that point. By giving himself a good chance at wearing immunity – and hopefully ensuring that Dreamz would not be – Yau-Man was charting a path to the final three. It was a good path, a good plan, but as Stacy said to me, he bet on the wrong horse, which was a huge mistake. He did fine by the second rule as well, neither plotting and scheming too much nor backstabbing too soon. If anything, he waited too long and should have gone after Dreamz sooner, but hindsight is 20/20 when it comes to Dreamz and his broken promise. Everybody in the final five believes Dreamz was sincere when he made the deal (except Dreamz, of course, who continues to spout BS about it having been planned all along), so there was no reason for Yau-Man to believe otherwise. Yau-Man obviously did not keep his scheming secret, as everybody knew how tight he was with Earl. He also specifically told Cassandra that he wanted her word that she would side with him and against Dreamz at the final four – and he did so in earshot of Alex, who passed that information along to Dreamz! Yau-Man was a bit too honest sometimes, and that may have come back to bite him. In the first rule, I mentioned Yau-Man’s long-term planning; one downside to it was that it made him less flexible. As he told me when I asked why he didn’t vote out Dreamz in going from five to four, he said, “Earl and I had worked the final four for so long, I didn’t want to change my strategy mid-stream, not having thought through the whole thing. It would have been spur of the moment and having, throughout the game, strategized and figured out the endgame, I wasn’t about to switch because I hadn’t studied Boo.” On Survivor, there are so many twists and turns – whether presented by the producers or players or just a change in the way the wind is blowing – you can’t lock yourself in to a certain mode of action. You need to be able to shift if necessary. It’s not clear that keeping Boo instead of Dreamz would have necessarily changed the outcome, but the point is that Yau-Man was so locked in by his planning, that he could not pull the trigger on a change, even if that change might have been for the best. Also, Yau-Man did appear to violate the large-type-boldfaced portion of the rule that says not to stick with one alliance and hope it survives. But in his defense, it appears that Earl helped save him several times, and it wasn’t like anybody else was seeking him as an ally. He could have tried to jump over to another alliance, but who? The remaining Horsemen? He would have certainly been the odd man out there. He could have tried to pull together some leftovers like Stacy and Boo, but their loyalty would have been suspect. So Yau-Man stuck with Earl, and together they plotted their destiny in the game. He did indeed do more than just hoping the alliance would make it – he helped ensure that it would. The fourth rule tells players not to let their emotions control them. Yau-Man admitted that he allowed his pride to interfere with his better judgment when it came to the Dreamz situation. He didn’t want to admit to himself that he might have made a bad decision, so he steadfastly believed that Dreamz would hold true to his word. I’m not sure I can criticize him too much more for that, since, as I mentioned earlier, all of the other final five thought Dreamz would uphold his side of the deal. Other than that, Yau-Man kept his emotions mostly out of the game. He planned his future and viewed most of the other players as game pieces, to be sacrificed when necessary. His one blind spot was Earl, though I’m not sure whether it really affected the outcome or not. I don’t think he would have been better off dumping Earl and going with somebody else – he just might not have wanted to share everything he thought with Earl, including the location of the rehidden immunity idol. Though again, it turned out not to be an issue. The fifth rule says players should pretend to be nice. From all accounts, Yau-Man didn’t need to pretend – he just plain is a nice guy. He didn’t annoy anybody and was likely the most popular contestant among his fellows. He certainly wasn’t voted out for that reason. Or was he? The sixth rule talks about how not being a threat. Being too popular with the jurors is indeed one way to be a huge threat. We saw that everybody feared going up against Yau-Man at the end, and with good reason, since Probst polled the jurors at the reunion and found that they would have given him the big prize. Dreamz was not the only person to turn on Yau-Man at that Tribal Council. Earl did too – and with good reason. Earl realized he would have a much more difficult time against Yau-Man at the end than against any of the others. Yau-Man was a threat to him winning the million, so when Dreamz refused to hand over immunity, Earl’s path to riches was laid out before him. The seventh rule was of no importance at all here, as Yau-Man certainly wasn’t lazy. So what about the eighth rule, which discusses how fellow tribe members should vote. Part of this rule notes, “One of the most important points to remember is that you want to be better thought of than the person left with you in the final two (or three). If the jury compares you and somebody they like more, you’re going to lose. You want to look like an angel by comparison. If that’s not possible, you want to look like the best player.” Getting rid of Yau-Man served everybody else’s needs in this area. Nobody was liked more than he was. And he looked like the best player compared with all of them as well, though Earl at least had some arguments to try to counter that possibility. None of them wanted to face Yau-Man in the finals, so he had to go. That actually sums it up quite nicely. Sure, Yau-Man made a deal with Dreamz and that deal didn’t hold up. But was it really the reason Yau-Man lost? No. If we take the deal out of the equation, I suspect we end up in exactly the same place. The only difference is that Yau-Man has a truck and Dreamz doesn’t. Perhaps Dreamz wouldn’t have tried as hard to get rid of Yau-Man earlier, but since those attempts failed, it really didn’t matter. Dreamz would have still been wearing immunity, and the others would still have realized they needed to get rid of Yau-Man in order to have any chance of winning. Yau-Man needed to find a way to get rid of Dreamz sooner in order to break the bond with Cassandra. Maybe that should have meant keeping Boo, but Boo knew the same thing that everybody else did, and would have similarly targeted Yau-Man. Either Yau-Man had to make a much different move several steps prior, or he had to win the final immunity challenge. Once Yau-Man was vulnerable immediately before heading to the finals, the others recognized that he was simply too much of a threat to allow to move forward. That is why Yau-Man lost.
Survivor: Fiji – Why Yau-Man Lost by David Bloomberg -- 05/15/2007 Yau-Man was the most popular Survivor: Fiji contestant, both among viewers and his peers. But he didn’t end up with the money! The deal that seemingly led to his departure has already received a lot of scrutiny and discussion. But is that all there is to it? Why did Yau-Man lose? It might seem like we can wrap up this article pretty quickly by simply saying that Yau-Man was sent packing because Dreamz decided not to uphold his end of the deal they’d made. But it’s never that easy. There are many factors that go into an outcome like this. So why did Yau-Man lose? We need to analyze all of those factors in a structured manner. To do so, we use What Fiji Survivors Should Have Learned. Let’s see what we can find out. Yau-Man showed a good understanding of the first rule, which talks about scheming and plotting. He came to Survivor looking to form a good, solid alliance. He even researched the show by looking at websites, including RealityNewsOnline (Hi, Yau-Man!). Yau-Man told me that he did not intend to jump around to different alliances, but rather to stick to one good one – and he did. We’ll discuss this more later in the third rule. Yau-Man seemed to be on top of the game throughout his time there. He thought far ahead, making plans, setting all the pieces in place. It was all strategy, and he plotted his path quite well. One issue that of course raises questions is the deal he offered to Dreamz. He gave away the truck in return for Dreamz to help him in a very specific circumstance. The circumstance came to pass, and Dreamz of course failed to come through. Was Yau-Man wrong to even offer the deal? I think we have to say yes, and Yau-Man has even agreed that it was an incorrect move. He was thinking about how to best make it past the final four. We have to give him credit for thinking that far in advance and plotting out the possibilities – on Survivor, it sometimes seems people barely think about the next vote, let alone the endgame. Yau-Man believed he could make it to the final four. But he was worried that Cassandra and Dreamz would turn on him at that point. By giving himself a good chance at wearing immunity – and hopefully ensuring that Dreamz would not be – Yau-Man was charting a path to the final three. It was a good path, a good plan, but as Stacy said to me, he bet on the wrong horse, which was a huge mistake. He did fine by the second rule as well, neither plotting and scheming too much nor backstabbing too soon. If anything, he waited too long and should have gone after Dreamz sooner, but hindsight is 20/20 when it comes to Dreamz and his broken promise. Everybody in the final five believes Dreamz was sincere when he made the deal (except Dreamz, of course, who continues to spout BS about it having been planned all along), so there was no reason for Yau-Man to believe otherwise. Yau-Man obviously did not keep his scheming secret, as everybody knew how tight he was with Earl. He also specifically told Cassandra that he wanted her word that she would side with him and against Dreamz at the final four – and he did so in earshot of Alex, who passed that information along to Dreamz! Yau-Man was a bit too honest sometimes, and that may have come back to bite him. In the first rule, I mentioned Yau-Man’s long-term planning; one downside to it was that it made him less flexible. As he told me when I asked why he didn’t vote out Dreamz in going from five to four, he said, “Earl and I had worked the final four for so long, I didn’t want to change my strategy mid-stream, not having thought through the whole thing. It would have been spur of the moment and having, throughout the game, strategized and figured out the endgame, I wasn’t about to switch because I hadn’t studied Boo.” On Survivor, there are so many twists and turns – whether presented by the producers or players or just a change in the way the wind is blowing – you can’t lock yourself in to a certain mode of action. You need to be able to shift if necessary. It’s not clear that keeping Boo instead of Dreamz would have necessarily changed the outcome, but the point is that Yau-Man was so locked in by his planning, that he could not pull the trigger on a change, even if that change might have been for the best. Also, Yau-Man did appear to violate the large-type-boldfaced portion of the rule that says not to stick with one alliance and hope it survives. But in his defense, it appears that Earl helped save him several times, and it wasn’t like anybody else was seeking him as an ally. He could have tried to jump over to another alliance, but who? The remaining Horsemen? He would have certainly been the odd man out there. He could have tried to pull together some leftovers like Stacy and Boo, but their loyalty would have been suspect. So Yau-Man stuck with Earl, and together they plotted their destiny in the game. He did indeed do more than just hoping the alliance would make it – he helped ensure that it would. The fourth rule tells players not to let their emotions control them. Yau-Man admitted that he allowed his pride to interfere with his better judgment when it came to the Dreamz situation. He didn’t want to admit to himself that he might have made a bad decision, so he steadfastly believed that Dreamz would hold true to his word. I’m not sure I can criticize him too much more for that, since, as I mentioned earlier, all of the other final five thought Dreamz would uphold his side of the deal. Other than that, Yau-Man kept his emotions mostly out of the game. He planned his future and viewed most of the other players as game pieces, to be sacrificed when necessary. His one blind spot was Earl, though I’m not sure whether it really affected the outcome or not. I don’t think he would have been better off dumping Earl and going with somebody else – he just might not have wanted to share everything he thought with Earl, including the location of the rehidden immunity idol. Though again, it turned out not to be an issue. The fifth rule says players should pretend to be nice. From all accounts, Yau-Man didn’t need to pretend – he just plain is a nice guy. He didn’t annoy anybody and was likely the most popular contestant among his fellows. He certainly wasn’t voted out for that reason. Or was he? The sixth rule talks about how not being a threat. Being too popular with the jurors is indeed one way to be a huge threat. We saw that everybody feared going up against Yau-Man at the end, and with good reason, since Probst polled the jurors at the reunion and found that they would have given him the big prize. Dreamz was not the only person to turn on Yau-Man at that Tribal Council. Earl did too – and with good reason. Earl realized he would have a much more difficult time against Yau-Man at the end than against any of the others. Yau-Man was a threat to him winning the million, so when Dreamz refused to hand over immunity, Earl’s path to riches was laid out before him. The seventh rule was of no importance at all here, as Yau-Man certainly wasn’t lazy. So what about the eighth rule, which discusses how fellow tribe members should vote. Part of this rule notes, “One of the most important points to remember is that you want to be better thought of than the person left with you in the final two (or three). If the jury compares you and somebody they like more, you’re going to lose. You want to look like an angel by comparison. If that’s not possible, you want to look like the best player.” Getting rid of Yau-Man served everybody else’s needs in this area. Nobody was liked more than he was. And he looked like the best player compared with all of them as well, though Earl at least had some arguments to try to counter that possibility. None of them wanted to face Yau-Man in the finals, so he had to go. That actually sums it up quite nicely. Sure, Yau-Man made a deal with Dreamz and that deal didn’t hold up. But was it really the reason Yau-Man lost? No. If we take the deal out of the equation, I suspect we end up in exactly the same place. The only difference is that Yau-Man has a truck and Dreamz doesn’t. Perhaps Dreamz wouldn’t have tried as hard to get rid of Yau-Man earlier, but since those attempts failed, it really didn’t matter. Dreamz would have still been wearing immunity, and the others would still have realized they needed to get rid of Yau-Man in order to have any chance of winning. Yau-Man needed to find a way to get rid of Dreamz sooner in order to break the bond with Cassandra. Maybe that should have meant keeping Boo, but Boo knew the same thing that everybody else did, and would have similarly targeted Yau-Man. Either Yau-Man had to make a much different move several steps prior, or he had to win the final immunity challenge. Once Yau-Man was vulnerable immediately before heading to the finals, the others recognized that he was simply too much of a threat to allow to move forward. That is why Yau-Man lost.