Strategic Overview of Episode 12
Strategic Overview of Survivor, Episode 12: Spreading Disinformation by Jeffrey D. Sadow -- 05/04/2007 SOS! While Alex may have failed to do the things necessary to maximize his chances at winning Survivor, his actions may substantially shape the configuration that will determine who can win the game. Where did he go wrong, and what consequences will his actions have? Professor Sadow has all the details! It seemed puzzling that Alex never quite could figure out the fault lines with the other six – the Syndicate core of Earl, Yau-Man, and Cassandra, and the Syndicate periphery of Boo, Stacy, and Dre. Further, he didn’t really need to, since within the last couple of days he learned that Stacy was least in favor and Boo was annoying people. Add to that Dre, another annoying big talker and erstwhile ally, and there’s the group he needed to work on. Instead, he decided to wait around and let people approach him. And over strolls Cassandra, who he should have known was unlikely to flop. He gave her a good rap, but she had to risk much to follow his advice. Rather, because of the strategic denseness of the periphery, those were the ones he needed to be jawboning. He needed to tell Boo he had heard around camp how he was irritating them all, meaning he likely was the next one out. He needed to tell Stacy to look back to past challenges that revealed how little the others thought of her, and how her game life was unlikely to continue much further. He needed to appeal to Dre to explain how his flipping made him appear untrustworthy to others and that he would be discarded as soon as they saw practical. To all, he should have reminded them of their past camaraderie, and how the real power sat with Yau-Man because of the idol, and thus with his closest allies Earl and Cassandra by extension. He needed to walk them through the coming crisis. At six, the core has the upper hand because of that idol. At best, the periphery can force a tie, but with no guarantee of winning – and if the core has pledged mutual cooperation, that may not happen because there would be a one in three chance their target in the core would produce the idol. All incentives are for one of the periphery to stay with the core because defection has reduced odds of long-term success. Using Alex for their own purposes at seven was their best shot at maximizing chances of winning. But, he didn’t appear to do any of this, wasting strategic machinations on Cassandra – at least for his case. But were they wasted for her, or did he plant the seed of a putsch in her head? If Cassandra is content with a high finish without winning, it probably had no effect on her. However, if she actually does want to play to win (and I would think the opportunity to get a million simoleons should make one operate as such), maybe it had an impact. Simply, her strategy would entail sandbagging Earl. Disinformation would be spread arguing Boo would go next (unless he won immunity again), being as Dre is seen as her favorite and Stacy as Yau-Man’s. Instead, he would be in on it with the rest of the periphery. Earl would be targeted, seeing as Yau-Man would not feel threatened and not see anybody else crucial threatened either so he would never want to pass off the idol. The group would have to stay quiet and then execute Earl. For this to work, a secret group of three of the four defectors would have to form to create their next target before taking out Earl. This is because Yau-Man still could use his idol at five, so the next target would come from among the four. Boo would be recommended here, because he and Stacy have shown themselves equally capable of winning immunity, but she is considered more obnoxious. Of course, Cassandra and Dre would insist to Boo that Stacy was the way to go, while she would be assured of their support. This could be avoided if Yau-Man was targeted initially and sandbagged so that he would not play the idol. But the plan works only if it is not played and there’s a one-in-two chance he could do it the next Tribal Council, so it’s best to give him a pass to four and then finish him off, provided he doesn’t win immunity at the end. Little will be lost by dispatching Earl earlier, who is just about as dangerous. This should appeal to the periphery. They (with Dre being correct and Boo and Stacy not) will think they are about guaranteed a spot in the final three. It requires planning and a deft touch, but it is entirely plausible. Interestingly, Cassandra would have more incentive to do this if she realized that three people would head in front of the jury. She must realize that, as deceptively nice as she is to people, enough people will vote for Earl or Yau-Man out of respect to deny her. If Cassandra is going to be like Vecepia, she will understand that now is the time to make this move – hanging back all game, just trying to survive, but being given the one golden opportunity to rig things highly in her favor, then taking it (actually, Vecepia took two – turning on the Gang of Four and later promising to Neleh they both would go in front of the jury). Just as she must know she could not beat either Yau-Man or Earl in front of the jury, she must know none of Dre, Boo, or Stacy would beat her (even if she figured out three were going, she could beat any pair). Or, she could be like any several contestants who are remembered now as asterisks that were used by superior players to bag a win – just getting led around, happy to be where she was, and falling short. Given what we have seen of her to this point, the latter seems more likely. But if she’s got any strategic talent at all, maybe Alex tripped a switch in her and we’ll be in for some interesting play, instead of mundane elimination.
Strategic Overview of Survivor, Episode 12: Spreading Disinformation by Jeffrey D. Sadow -- 05/04/2007 SOS! While Alex may have failed to do the things necessary to maximize his chances at winning Survivor, his actions may substantially shape the configuration that will determine who can win the game. Where did he go wrong, and what consequences will his actions have? Professor Sadow has all the details! It seemed puzzling that Alex never quite could figure out the fault lines with the other six – the Syndicate core of Earl, Yau-Man, and Cassandra, and the Syndicate periphery of Boo, Stacy, and Dre. Further, he didn’t really need to, since within the last couple of days he learned that Stacy was least in favor and Boo was annoying people. Add to that Dre, another annoying big talker and erstwhile ally, and there’s the group he needed to work on. Instead, he decided to wait around and let people approach him. And over strolls Cassandra, who he should have known was unlikely to flop. He gave her a good rap, but she had to risk much to follow his advice. Rather, because of the strategic denseness of the periphery, those were the ones he needed to be jawboning. He needed to tell Boo he had heard around camp how he was irritating them all, meaning he likely was the next one out. He needed to tell Stacy to look back to past challenges that revealed how little the others thought of her, and how her game life was unlikely to continue much further. He needed to appeal to Dre to explain how his flipping made him appear untrustworthy to others and that he would be discarded as soon as they saw practical. To all, he should have reminded them of their past camaraderie, and how the real power sat with Yau-Man because of the idol, and thus with his closest allies Earl and Cassandra by extension. He needed to walk them through the coming crisis. At six, the core has the upper hand because of that idol. At best, the periphery can force a tie, but with no guarantee of winning – and if the core has pledged mutual cooperation, that may not happen because there would be a one in three chance their target in the core would produce the idol. All incentives are for one of the periphery to stay with the core because defection has reduced odds of long-term success. Using Alex for their own purposes at seven was their best shot at maximizing chances of winning. But, he didn’t appear to do any of this, wasting strategic machinations on Cassandra – at least for his case. But were they wasted for her, or did he plant the seed of a putsch in her head? If Cassandra is content with a high finish without winning, it probably had no effect on her. However, if she actually does want to play to win (and I would think the opportunity to get a million simoleons should make one operate as such), maybe it had an impact. Simply, her strategy would entail sandbagging Earl. Disinformation would be spread arguing Boo would go next (unless he won immunity again), being as Dre is seen as her favorite and Stacy as Yau-Man’s. Instead, he would be in on it with the rest of the periphery. Earl would be targeted, seeing as Yau-Man would not feel threatened and not see anybody else crucial threatened either so he would never want to pass off the idol. The group would have to stay quiet and then execute Earl. For this to work, a secret group of three of the four defectors would have to form to create their next target before taking out Earl. This is because Yau-Man still could use his idol at five, so the next target would come from among the four. Boo would be recommended here, because he and Stacy have shown themselves equally capable of winning immunity, but she is considered more obnoxious. Of course, Cassandra and Dre would insist to Boo that Stacy was the way to go, while she would be assured of their support. This could be avoided if Yau-Man was targeted initially and sandbagged so that he would not play the idol. But the plan works only if it is not played and there’s a one-in-two chance he could do it the next Tribal Council, so it’s best to give him a pass to four and then finish him off, provided he doesn’t win immunity at the end. Little will be lost by dispatching Earl earlier, who is just about as dangerous. This should appeal to the periphery. They (with Dre being correct and Boo and Stacy not) will think they are about guaranteed a spot in the final three. It requires planning and a deft touch, but it is entirely plausible. Interestingly, Cassandra would have more incentive to do this if she realized that three people would head in front of the jury. She must realize that, as deceptively nice as she is to people, enough people will vote for Earl or Yau-Man out of respect to deny her. If Cassandra is going to be like Vecepia, she will understand that now is the time to make this move – hanging back all game, just trying to survive, but being given the one golden opportunity to rig things highly in her favor, then taking it (actually, Vecepia took two – turning on the Gang of Four and later promising to Neleh they both would go in front of the jury). Just as she must know she could not beat either Yau-Man or Earl in front of the jury, she must know none of Dre, Boo, or Stacy would beat her (even if she figured out three were going, she could beat any pair). Or, she could be like any several contestants who are remembered now as asterisks that were used by superior players to bag a win – just getting led around, happy to be where she was, and falling short. Given what we have seen of her to this point, the latter seems more likely. But if she’s got any strategic talent at all, maybe Alex tripped a switch in her and we’ll be in for some interesting play, instead of mundane elimination.