Strategic Overview of Episode 11
Strategic Overview of Survivor, Episode 11: Strategic Ciphers by Jeffrey D. Sadow -- 04/27/2007 SOS! Alex and Mookie had the right idea to take control of the game, but it didn't work out quite as well as they'd hoped. But there is still a chance for Alex to benefit from his buddy's unfortunate ouster. But why won't it work? Professor Sadow has the answers! As far as executions go, tonight’s episode of Survivor was a most entertaining one, in the process perhaps showing how the game might change in the next few days. Together, Mookie and Alex had the right attitude. Even though strategic ciphers Boo, Stacy, and Dre (him perhaps the best example of what happens when somebody who doesn’t know he doesn’t know anything about strategy thinks he does) surely must know Earl and Yau-Man, aided by the barely-registering strategy IQ of Cassandra, will beat them at that game if allowed, it was too early to mutiny. So the outcasts had no chance to swing things to their side this time out. Together they chose the proper move, and the next move made by Alex alone, through luck or brilliance, kept him in the game. There are two ways to beat an opposing alliance, and the more obvious, having the numbers, was not going to work given the three ciphers needed only one vote to put the others on defensive at seven, not therefore needing two at eight. The other is to sow dissension within the stronger alliance, and Alex and Mookie did that precisely with their attempted blackmail of Yau-Man. If they thought it could turn the vote their way this round they dreamed unrealistically, but it should open the eyes of the ciphers (who, because they are strategic ciphers, need plenty of help) that both Earl and Yau-Man are attempting to consolidate power, the latter simply because he hid useful information (Earl, of course, because of his overt directing). Yau-Man can whistle in the dark all he wants, but he has gone now from being under the radar to being seen as perhaps the major threat. Worse, he is seen being in league with the only other perceived at present as a top threat, Earl. Needing only one more player and seeming to have her in Cassandra to have veto power over inter-alliance matters, the two strongest cannot be allowed to consolidate their positions. This was bad for Earl and Yau-Man for the information to get out. In fact, it may hasten their potential crisis, and Alex could be the big beneficiary of it through his skill, if he had consciously reasoned this out. It will be fascinating to learn whether Alex anticipated, for the six to be safe, that they would split the vote and took advantage of that to preserve himself. Actually, I’m guessing it was luck, but if not, it was a fine move. (Again, keep in mind that he and Mookie must have known they really had no chance to detach anybody from the alliance, or even would know where to begin, to take advantage of splitting the vote to save both of themselves.) Especially because at seven, the ciphers indeed may realize, goaded by this event, that they cannot let Earl and Yau-Man go too far. With Alex’s help, they must use the next vote to send Earl packing (unless he wins immunity, and then send Cassandra home). If they can toss one more from that sub-group Alex becomes superfluous at that point, but then Alex could be in business. He can use Dre’s over-thinking against him and the remaining power player left (probably Yau-Man) to then turn on Boo and Stacy. Thus, this could get very interesting … … but probably won’t, because Dre, Stacy, and Boo so far have been such ciphers that they’ll probably never realize that these possibilities can get them farther in the game than being led meekly to slaughter following Earl and Yau-Man. One hopes they realize the only way that any of them can win is if they are in front of the jury against each other, and the time to prepare for that to happen is now. Or, to look at it another way, their chances are a whole lot better of that coming about if it is them three against Alex rather than against Earl, Yau-Man, and Cassandra. If only they would see that, for sheer audience entertainment value. And so if he wants to stay in the game absent very happy immunity wins or idol-findings, Alex needs to do everything in his power to make them understand it.
Strategic Overview of Survivor, Episode 11: Strategic Ciphers by Jeffrey D. Sadow -- 04/27/2007 SOS! Alex and Mookie had the right idea to take control of the game, but it didn't work out quite as well as they'd hoped. But there is still a chance for Alex to benefit from his buddy's unfortunate ouster. But why won't it work? Professor Sadow has the answers! As far as executions go, tonight’s episode of Survivor was a most entertaining one, in the process perhaps showing how the game might change in the next few days. Together, Mookie and Alex had the right attitude. Even though strategic ciphers Boo, Stacy, and Dre (him perhaps the best example of what happens when somebody who doesn’t know he doesn’t know anything about strategy thinks he does) surely must know Earl and Yau-Man, aided by the barely-registering strategy IQ of Cassandra, will beat them at that game if allowed, it was too early to mutiny. So the outcasts had no chance to swing things to their side this time out. Together they chose the proper move, and the next move made by Alex alone, through luck or brilliance, kept him in the game. There are two ways to beat an opposing alliance, and the more obvious, having the numbers, was not going to work given the three ciphers needed only one vote to put the others on defensive at seven, not therefore needing two at eight. The other is to sow dissension within the stronger alliance, and Alex and Mookie did that precisely with their attempted blackmail of Yau-Man. If they thought it could turn the vote their way this round they dreamed unrealistically, but it should open the eyes of the ciphers (who, because they are strategic ciphers, need plenty of help) that both Earl and Yau-Man are attempting to consolidate power, the latter simply because he hid useful information (Earl, of course, because of his overt directing). Yau-Man can whistle in the dark all he wants, but he has gone now from being under the radar to being seen as perhaps the major threat. Worse, he is seen being in league with the only other perceived at present as a top threat, Earl. Needing only one more player and seeming to have her in Cassandra to have veto power over inter-alliance matters, the two strongest cannot be allowed to consolidate their positions. This was bad for Earl and Yau-Man for the information to get out. In fact, it may hasten their potential crisis, and Alex could be the big beneficiary of it through his skill, if he had consciously reasoned this out. It will be fascinating to learn whether Alex anticipated, for the six to be safe, that they would split the vote and took advantage of that to preserve himself. Actually, I’m guessing it was luck, but if not, it was a fine move. (Again, keep in mind that he and Mookie must have known they really had no chance to detach anybody from the alliance, or even would know where to begin, to take advantage of splitting the vote to save both of themselves.) Especially because at seven, the ciphers indeed may realize, goaded by this event, that they cannot let Earl and Yau-Man go too far. With Alex’s help, they must use the next vote to send Earl packing (unless he wins immunity, and then send Cassandra home). If they can toss one more from that sub-group Alex becomes superfluous at that point, but then Alex could be in business. He can use Dre’s over-thinking against him and the remaining power player left (probably Yau-Man) to then turn on Boo and Stacy. Thus, this could get very interesting … … but probably won’t, because Dre, Stacy, and Boo so far have been such ciphers that they’ll probably never realize that these possibilities can get them farther in the game than being led meekly to slaughter following Earl and Yau-Man. One hopes they realize the only way that any of them can win is if they are in front of the jury against each other, and the time to prepare for that to happen is now. Or, to look at it another way, their chances are a whole lot better of that coming about if it is them three against Alex rather than against Earl, Yau-Man, and Cassandra. If only they would see that, for sheer audience entertainment value. And so if he wants to stay in the game absent very happy immunity wins or idol-findings, Alex needs to do everything in his power to make them understand it.