Strategic Overview of Episode 10
Strategic Overview of Survivor, Episode 10: Castles Made of Sand Fall into the Sea Eventually by Jeffrey D. Sadow -- 04/20/2007 SOS! Bad luck caught up with the Two Amigos in the latest episode of Survivor to send Edgardo packing – but it was a situation that well could have been avoided had they done things been differently in the days preceding. How could they have stayed? Professor Sadow has the details! Bad luck, because not one but two people who seemed allied with the Two Amigos, Stacy and Dre, went sour on them. Stacy’s was not entirely surprising, for she must have figured that when things got to five (not knowing three will go in front of the jury) and her vote determined which dyad would advance, her usefulness to the winners would be over and she would be targeted. Still, she was guaranteed under that regime of at minimum the final six, and quite possible the final three, so that was a lot to throw away on the faint hope she could improve her lot by heading elsewhere. Simply, the Two Amigos got stung by an inferior move by a poorer player. But things really went rotten with Dre not just defecting, but becoming an active covert agent for the other side. As well thought-out their plans were (and it looked as if Earl’s gang was going to walk right into it), it had no chance with Dre spilling the beans. If Dre for the past two weeks had been ingratiating himself to the Two Amigos just for an opportunity like this, then he must be applauded. But somehow I don’t think that’s the case. Dre strikes me as a player who comes up way short in strategy, but instinctually plays well (witness his decision to vote out Michelle because she said she didn’t know him, so he figured that made her too unreliable – exactly right for that time). That makes him exceptionally unreliable in any alliance. However, the Two Amigos did somewhat make their own bed on this one. Despite her randomness, the Lisi was a reliable vote and should have been protected when they had the chance, instead of putting their money on Dre. Instead of letting Earl work on Boo, why didn’t the Two Amigos reestablish relations with him? Edgardo paid the price for mistakes like these. Or, as the drug-fueled philosopher Hendrix postulated, “Castles made of sand fall in the sea, eventually.” Yet it’s less certain that Alex will follow him precisely because of the vagaries of Stacy and Dre, and even Boo to a certain degree who seems perfectly content to play a Sandra-like non-strategy game of selling himself to whoever needs a vote. (Did anybody else notice his cap subtly advertising his Flo’Z Bar around Port Barre, a semi-dive bar in a semi-speedtrap near Opelousas on the way to Baton Rouge that I have had a small amount of personal experience with; maybe he’ll give me one on the house next time if I start writing really nice things about him, and maybe Boo’s pal ex-Big Brother contestant/drunken attempted assault victim Krista will buy me the next one.) Like Alex, a strategist like Earl easily can get burned by just one of this fodder; two or three of them can create real strategy headaches. This entails that Alex and Mookie by no means are out of the game yet. Stacy, Dre, and Boo should realize that they are not part of the Earl-Yau Man-Cassandra axis and that logically they should come together to take down what has emerged as the dominant faction – which of course means they will need help from Alex or Mookie. Chances are this is not something they will not come to understand on their own, so Alex and Mookie are going to have to make them, explaining that if they both go next, at 3-3 Earl has the upper hand with the idol. Indeed, they should argue the next vote should target Earl, or Yau-Man or Cassnadra, with the five of them voting against him. Alex and Mookie could argue one of their names will be next on Earl’s list, thus giving the discombobulated three a free shot at shaking loose the idol and still maintaining numbers, at 4-3, to take out Earl’s core gang even if their target turns out to have the idol. The beauty of it for them is that if they follow this, of four left they will still be three and either Alex or Mookie, so they still control things at endgame. Naturally, Alex or Mookie also benefits from this arrangement because at four they are up against (again, if I have judged Dre correctly and the other two continue not to show much of anything) three people they have a good chance of outwitting. And at this point, it is about their only chance to keep going absent a Terry-like string of immunity wins. While this is the optimal strategy for those three, despite the desire to see players use their best strategies, one almost doesn’t want to because the game then likely would be won by one of these ciphers. But, as dangerous as they are to strategists precisely because of their unpredictability, Earl dares not start dispatching them yet as Alex and Mookie are far too dangerous, both as strategists and as potential competition winners, to let stay in. For example, let’s say Dre goes next; but Mookie and Alex still can spin their tale to Boo and Stacy who originally were with them in the early days. Any force which threatens to wake up those three must be neutralized, so Earl must take the chance they won’t go bad on him on their own and thus get rid of Mookie or Alex first. Only after the game is at five, with Mookie, Alex, and (because he is the least trustworthy of all) Dre gone, can Earl, Yau-Man, and Cassandra breathe a sigh of relief and get on with the business of figuring out how they will get in front of the jury.
Strategic Overview of Survivor, Episode 10: Castles Made of Sand Fall into the Sea Eventually by Jeffrey D. Sadow -- 04/20/2007 SOS! Bad luck caught up with the Two Amigos in the latest episode of Survivor to send Edgardo packing – but it was a situation that well could have been avoided had they done things been differently in the days preceding. How could they have stayed? Professor Sadow has the details! Bad luck, because not one but two people who seemed allied with the Two Amigos, Stacy and Dre, went sour on them. Stacy’s was not entirely surprising, for she must have figured that when things got to five (not knowing three will go in front of the jury) and her vote determined which dyad would advance, her usefulness to the winners would be over and she would be targeted. Still, she was guaranteed under that regime of at minimum the final six, and quite possible the final three, so that was a lot to throw away on the faint hope she could improve her lot by heading elsewhere. Simply, the Two Amigos got stung by an inferior move by a poorer player. But things really went rotten with Dre not just defecting, but becoming an active covert agent for the other side. As well thought-out their plans were (and it looked as if Earl’s gang was going to walk right into it), it had no chance with Dre spilling the beans. If Dre for the past two weeks had been ingratiating himself to the Two Amigos just for an opportunity like this, then he must be applauded. But somehow I don’t think that’s the case. Dre strikes me as a player who comes up way short in strategy, but instinctually plays well (witness his decision to vote out Michelle because she said she didn’t know him, so he figured that made her too unreliable – exactly right for that time). That makes him exceptionally unreliable in any alliance. However, the Two Amigos did somewhat make their own bed on this one. Despite her randomness, the Lisi was a reliable vote and should have been protected when they had the chance, instead of putting their money on Dre. Instead of letting Earl work on Boo, why didn’t the Two Amigos reestablish relations with him? Edgardo paid the price for mistakes like these. Or, as the drug-fueled philosopher Hendrix postulated, “Castles made of sand fall in the sea, eventually.” Yet it’s less certain that Alex will follow him precisely because of the vagaries of Stacy and Dre, and even Boo to a certain degree who seems perfectly content to play a Sandra-like non-strategy game of selling himself to whoever needs a vote. (Did anybody else notice his cap subtly advertising his Flo’Z Bar around Port Barre, a semi-dive bar in a semi-speedtrap near Opelousas on the way to Baton Rouge that I have had a small amount of personal experience with; maybe he’ll give me one on the house next time if I start writing really nice things about him, and maybe Boo’s pal ex-Big Brother contestant/drunken attempted assault victim Krista will buy me the next one.) Like Alex, a strategist like Earl easily can get burned by just one of this fodder; two or three of them can create real strategy headaches. This entails that Alex and Mookie by no means are out of the game yet. Stacy, Dre, and Boo should realize that they are not part of the Earl-Yau Man-Cassandra axis and that logically they should come together to take down what has emerged as the dominant faction – which of course means they will need help from Alex or Mookie. Chances are this is not something they will not come to understand on their own, so Alex and Mookie are going to have to make them, explaining that if they both go next, at 3-3 Earl has the upper hand with the idol. Indeed, they should argue the next vote should target Earl, or Yau-Man or Cassnadra, with the five of them voting against him. Alex and Mookie could argue one of their names will be next on Earl’s list, thus giving the discombobulated three a free shot at shaking loose the idol and still maintaining numbers, at 4-3, to take out Earl’s core gang even if their target turns out to have the idol. The beauty of it for them is that if they follow this, of four left they will still be three and either Alex or Mookie, so they still control things at endgame. Naturally, Alex or Mookie also benefits from this arrangement because at four they are up against (again, if I have judged Dre correctly and the other two continue not to show much of anything) three people they have a good chance of outwitting. And at this point, it is about their only chance to keep going absent a Terry-like string of immunity wins. While this is the optimal strategy for those three, despite the desire to see players use their best strategies, one almost doesn’t want to because the game then likely would be won by one of these ciphers. But, as dangerous as they are to strategists precisely because of their unpredictability, Earl dares not start dispatching them yet as Alex and Mookie are far too dangerous, both as strategists and as potential competition winners, to let stay in. For example, let’s say Dre goes next; but Mookie and Alex still can spin their tale to Boo and Stacy who originally were with them in the early days. Any force which threatens to wake up those three must be neutralized, so Earl must take the chance they won’t go bad on him on their own and thus get rid of Mookie or Alex first. Only after the game is at five, with Mookie, Alex, and (because he is the least trustworthy of all) Dre gone, can Earl, Yau-Man, and Cassandra breathe a sigh of relief and get on with the business of figuring out how they will get in front of the jury.