Episode 9: Horsemen or Horse Meat?
Strategic Overview of Survivor, Episode 9: Horsemen or Horse Meat? by Jeffrey D. Sadow -- 04/13/2007 SOS! As usual, a new tribe means some interesting strategy. The Four Horsemen arise and the game is turned upside down. Who can tear the Horsemen apart? Who has the advantage now that they're all wearing purple on Bula Bula? Professor Sadow has the details. Ni sa bula, Bula! And with the new tribe emerging also we got an episode with fascinating strategic implications for the future. The crux of it all turned on two decisions Alex made. Two bad ones and his future was limited; two good ones and his crew was in the driver’s seat. Hitting the back end only means it’s still up in the air. Alex flubbed the unilateral promulgation of Stacy as the chick to join the Four Horsemen, as Mookie and Dre obviously smoked out the fact that the Two Amigos then would have the advantage. What he should have done is said Stacy should have been one of two selections, and then let Dre and Mookie nominate a second candidate and then decide to decide at a later date. Had he followed this strategy, the vote at Tribal Council would have been uncontroversial, and later he might have been able to manipulate it to get Stacy to make the cut. To attempt to rectify, when Jeff Probst gave him the opening to spout reasons to vote off people, he cleverly used the opportunity to signal how to rig an alliance vote. He may not have known that Dre knew (he did), but at the same time he had to telegraph to Stacy who to pick. That secured the three votes, but at the expense of the rift with Mookie which makes his alliance’s future uncertain. What if Dre had voted against Stacy instead? This would mean an alternate fifth would have to have been chosen and already their choices were limited. Oddly, the guy nobody seems to trust, Boo, might have been the best candidate all along because neither side seemed to have a vested interest in him as well. This might have been a mistake from the Two Amigos’ perspective, unilaterally dismissing him, because Boo probably would have been more likely to gravitate to them than to the other dyad. But given lack of enthusiasm about him, Cassandra would have been the next choice and that likely would have been fatal to them. While it’s certainly possible she would have been swayed enough to pledge permanent fealty to Dre and Mookie and their pals with that, giving them the advantage at five, it’s probably more likely she would have strung them along and turned the Four Horsemen into horsemeat. If then Mookie and Dre were truly serious about the Four Horsemen, Dre may have saved Mookie from his own folly by a vote against Michelle. At this point, Mookie and Dre could go in two directions. One is keeping the Four Horsemen together. This could prove problematic because Stacy seems to have been permanently installed as the fifth member. If they choose this, they cannot let the situation remain unaltered. Simply they must go to the Two Amigos and say the next vote is to send out Stacy or they are gone, and Boo must be brought in as the fifth member. (Cassandra might be their first option, but if the Two Amigos are smart, they will see that as reversing the advantage and insist upon the least common denominator Boo – again, perhaps inadvertently saving all four of them). This is not a bad bluff because it is not entirely undesirable to jump sides at this point. If they joined the Earl+Yau-Man+Cassandra troika there’s a good chance that, while Cassandra would not have liked to hang with an alliance with the Two Amigos, she’s likely to go with one with only Dre and Mookie, so at five after bumping off Stacy and the Two Amigos (Mookie obviously carrying the immunity idol with him) they can eliminate Earl and Yau-Man – or at least try. Because Dre should think long and hard about this, because Mookie will have the immunity idol and Earl and Yau-Man may have the other (of course they do, sharing it). That means the vote at five is crucial because that is the last time it can be used; thus, Mookie has every incentive to toss it in at that point regardless. Let’s say it comes to that point and Dre is not assuming the other idol is out. They decide to vote for Earl and Earl gets wind of it. At the vote’s conclusion, he throws in the idol – but then so does Mookie. If the three voted for Earl and the two voted for Dre, Dre’s gone. But if they voted for Mookie, well, what, a revote? But the point is Dre runs all the risk in this scenario unless they are cognizant that the other idol is out and deceive the pair into who they are going to vote for. But even that goes out the window if, say, Earl wins immunity and Yau-Man tosses in the idol. Thus, from Dre’s perspective, he may prefer to stick with the Four Horsemen – which is not the thing you would seem want to do if you go tell the opposition that Mookie has the idol as the previews suggest … unless this is itself a diversionary feint to try to win their trust, and perhaps to get them to reveal whether one of them has the idol, before lowering the boom on them. If they choose the other path, not making Stacy’s ouster a deal breaker, then they have another bifurcation in strategy to ponder. They could decide to sucker the Two Amigos by starting backdoor negotiations with Cassandra and Boo and insisting Earl or Yau-Man be the next to go. Again, unless they are strategically aware that either of them could have the idol, they must hide their choice and take a good guess – Yau-Man probably being less likely to have it (even as he does), but the greater value in obscuring the choice is that neither would feel threatened enough to play it. That’s why the Four Horsemen should play up the Boo angle as the next to go, then shock Yau-Man. This means Mookie and Dre must sell to the Two Amigos the necessity of getting one of Earl or Yau-Man out. Of course, sending one home immediately would alert the other that the jig was up although luck could be on their side; if they do take Yau-Man and he goes unexpectedly, he’ll have no chance to pass off the idol to Earl. If that’s what happens, Earl could be targeted next, and then at seven Mookie, Dre, Cassandra and Boo start whittling away at Alex, Edgardo, and Stacy. Note that some stuff has to go right for this to work to their advantage. The other alternative is for just one thing to go right: at five after ridding the game of Boo, Earl, Yau-Man, and Cassandra, one of them wins immunity, and the other takes possession of the idol. At that point, a gentleman’s agreement will emerge to boot Stacy, and a duel of titans will occur at four. Of course, this also is risky because smart players never should plan on winning a crucial immunity as a major part of their strategy. (And in either scenario, unhappy immunity challenge outcomes could interfere – such as at six the target wins immunity.) All things considered, Mookie benefits the most from an immediate defection, while Dre’s position is less certain. In turn, uncertainty abounds with the Two Amigos’ chances until their partners decide, and that decision in turn also keeps Earl’s and Yau-Man’s fates up the air. Depending upon the next moves, one of these three pairs of dyads will see its chances greatly increased of having at least one of their members make it in front of the jury (and given the idiotic three-person final apparently on the way, probably both). The only thing that is clear is that Mookie, followed by Dre, have the best shots at getting to endgame, but practically anybody can make it there at this point. Who will make it largely rests on the strategic guile of Mookie and Dre.
Strategic Overview of Survivor, Episode 9: Horsemen or Horse Meat? by Jeffrey D. Sadow -- 04/13/2007 SOS! As usual, a new tribe means some interesting strategy. The Four Horsemen arise and the game is turned upside down. Who can tear the Horsemen apart? Who has the advantage now that they're all wearing purple on Bula Bula? Professor Sadow has the details. Ni sa bula, Bula! And with the new tribe emerging also we got an episode with fascinating strategic implications for the future. The crux of it all turned on two decisions Alex made. Two bad ones and his future was limited; two good ones and his crew was in the driver’s seat. Hitting the back end only means it’s still up in the air. Alex flubbed the unilateral promulgation of Stacy as the chick to join the Four Horsemen, as Mookie and Dre obviously smoked out the fact that the Two Amigos then would have the advantage. What he should have done is said Stacy should have been one of two selections, and then let Dre and Mookie nominate a second candidate and then decide to decide at a later date. Had he followed this strategy, the vote at Tribal Council would have been uncontroversial, and later he might have been able to manipulate it to get Stacy to make the cut. To attempt to rectify, when Jeff Probst gave him the opening to spout reasons to vote off people, he cleverly used the opportunity to signal how to rig an alliance vote. He may not have known that Dre knew (he did), but at the same time he had to telegraph to Stacy who to pick. That secured the three votes, but at the expense of the rift with Mookie which makes his alliance’s future uncertain. What if Dre had voted against Stacy instead? This would mean an alternate fifth would have to have been chosen and already their choices were limited. Oddly, the guy nobody seems to trust, Boo, might have been the best candidate all along because neither side seemed to have a vested interest in him as well. This might have been a mistake from the Two Amigos’ perspective, unilaterally dismissing him, because Boo probably would have been more likely to gravitate to them than to the other dyad. But given lack of enthusiasm about him, Cassandra would have been the next choice and that likely would have been fatal to them. While it’s certainly possible she would have been swayed enough to pledge permanent fealty to Dre and Mookie and their pals with that, giving them the advantage at five, it’s probably more likely she would have strung them along and turned the Four Horsemen into horsemeat. If then Mookie and Dre were truly serious about the Four Horsemen, Dre may have saved Mookie from his own folly by a vote against Michelle. At this point, Mookie and Dre could go in two directions. One is keeping the Four Horsemen together. This could prove problematic because Stacy seems to have been permanently installed as the fifth member. If they choose this, they cannot let the situation remain unaltered. Simply they must go to the Two Amigos and say the next vote is to send out Stacy or they are gone, and Boo must be brought in as the fifth member. (Cassandra might be their first option, but if the Two Amigos are smart, they will see that as reversing the advantage and insist upon the least common denominator Boo – again, perhaps inadvertently saving all four of them). This is not a bad bluff because it is not entirely undesirable to jump sides at this point. If they joined the Earl+Yau-Man+Cassandra troika there’s a good chance that, while Cassandra would not have liked to hang with an alliance with the Two Amigos, she’s likely to go with one with only Dre and Mookie, so at five after bumping off Stacy and the Two Amigos (Mookie obviously carrying the immunity idol with him) they can eliminate Earl and Yau-Man – or at least try. Because Dre should think long and hard about this, because Mookie will have the immunity idol and Earl and Yau-Man may have the other (of course they do, sharing it). That means the vote at five is crucial because that is the last time it can be used; thus, Mookie has every incentive to toss it in at that point regardless. Let’s say it comes to that point and Dre is not assuming the other idol is out. They decide to vote for Earl and Earl gets wind of it. At the vote’s conclusion, he throws in the idol – but then so does Mookie. If the three voted for Earl and the two voted for Dre, Dre’s gone. But if they voted for Mookie, well, what, a revote? But the point is Dre runs all the risk in this scenario unless they are cognizant that the other idol is out and deceive the pair into who they are going to vote for. But even that goes out the window if, say, Earl wins immunity and Yau-Man tosses in the idol. Thus, from Dre’s perspective, he may prefer to stick with the Four Horsemen – which is not the thing you would seem want to do if you go tell the opposition that Mookie has the idol as the previews suggest … unless this is itself a diversionary feint to try to win their trust, and perhaps to get them to reveal whether one of them has the idol, before lowering the boom on them. If they choose the other path, not making Stacy’s ouster a deal breaker, then they have another bifurcation in strategy to ponder. They could decide to sucker the Two Amigos by starting backdoor negotiations with Cassandra and Boo and insisting Earl or Yau-Man be the next to go. Again, unless they are strategically aware that either of them could have the idol, they must hide their choice and take a good guess – Yau-Man probably being less likely to have it (even as he does), but the greater value in obscuring the choice is that neither would feel threatened enough to play it. That’s why the Four Horsemen should play up the Boo angle as the next to go, then shock Yau-Man. This means Mookie and Dre must sell to the Two Amigos the necessity of getting one of Earl or Yau-Man out. Of course, sending one home immediately would alert the other that the jig was up although luck could be on their side; if they do take Yau-Man and he goes unexpectedly, he’ll have no chance to pass off the idol to Earl. If that’s what happens, Earl could be targeted next, and then at seven Mookie, Dre, Cassandra and Boo start whittling away at Alex, Edgardo, and Stacy. Note that some stuff has to go right for this to work to their advantage. The other alternative is for just one thing to go right: at five after ridding the game of Boo, Earl, Yau-Man, and Cassandra, one of them wins immunity, and the other takes possession of the idol. At that point, a gentleman’s agreement will emerge to boot Stacy, and a duel of titans will occur at four. Of course, this also is risky because smart players never should plan on winning a crucial immunity as a major part of their strategy. (And in either scenario, unhappy immunity challenge outcomes could interfere – such as at six the target wins immunity.) All things considered, Mookie benefits the most from an immediate defection, while Dre’s position is less certain. In turn, uncertainty abounds with the Two Amigos’ chances until their partners decide, and that decision in turn also keeps Earl’s and Yau-Man’s fates up the air. Depending upon the next moves, one of these three pairs of dyads will see its chances greatly increased of having at least one of their members make it in front of the jury (and given the idiotic three-person final apparently on the way, probably both). The only thing that is clear is that Mookie, followed by Dre, have the best shots at getting to endgame, but practically anybody can make it there at this point. Who will make it largely rests on the strategic guile of Mookie and Dre.