Episode 8: The Lisi Has Left the Building
Strategic Overview of Survivor, Episode 8: The Lisi Has Left the Building by Jeffrey D. Sadow -- 04/06/2007 SOS! In voting out Lisi, it seems as if the Two Amigos have inherited some of her "strategic prowess." Now, with two idols in the mix, the time is ripe for Earl or Mookie to take control. Professor Sadow has the details. Looks like the Lisi’s strategic dullness, which perhaps exceeds that of any player in Survivor series history, rubbed off on Alex and Edgardo. Yes, she may have been poor at any and all challenges, and that was her strongest attribute she brought to the game, but despite it all, in the most important aspect of she equaled even the game’s greats like Rick, Yul, and Brian – she had a vote. For the Two Amigos, 100 percent of a Lisi vote is worth more than 90 percent of a Dre vote. Loyalty means more than anything else, and she gave it. One can see why they would be tempted to cut her loose, and why they might think letting Lisi go was not a problem. It is an aggravation to keep on an ally with no heart, and one might think she could fail them in a crucial moment. But the trick is to make sure safety is secured before the moment of failure – after they seized control of the game, and then she would be free to leave. Until then, carry her like you do a pal who had one too many draws from the yaqona bowl. Or, they could have a false sense of security now that they appear to be in a pact with Mookie holding onto a hidden immunity idol. They may believe they could afford to give up her vote with the idol on which to fall back under duress. The mistake here, of course, is assuming that it is the only one in the game, a baffling omission since they know another must be out there. Again, never assume luck will be on your side (that it will not be found) or that opponents will make mistakes (like not playing it) or else you blindside yourself. Or, they could believe that they have an alliance of six – all of them left on Ravu plus Boo and Stacy. Here, they needed to listen to about the only sensible thing the Lisi ever said – her Cassandra imitation about the present-day Cassandra. Surely the Two Amigos, knowing the dynamics of the old Moto, should know Cassandra will defect and that Dre is more likely to follow her lead than to stick with guys they core of which initially shunned him. Simply, they weakened their chances by not taking advantage of her hourly mood swing into positive territory and keeping her vote around, rather than getting rid of a potentially disloyal partner. Still, if a merge were to happen now, Dre would have to think long and hard about flipping because he would go from being on a 6-4 majority to forcing a 5-5 tie that may result with him leaving next. But at the same time he must consider what would happen if he allowed one of Earl’s group (Earl, Michelle, Yau-Man, Cassandra) to get lopped off because then he becomes disposable. This well may cause him to risk everything by triggering a tie. To make matters more interesting, he knows nothing of the two idols out there. Unwittingly, the distinct advantage goes to Earl’s gang because of this. Let’s say the merge happens and Alex, Edgardo, Mookie, Boo, and Stacy believe with Dre that they have the upper hand. Regardless of whether one of Earl or Yau-Man hold individual immunity, the other would be the target – but they have a double-secret pact to use the idol when needed. Meanwhile, Dre informs them of his plan to defect, and they tell him to feign loyalty to the others to the hilt. Thus, the ex-original Moto majority plus Mookie think they’re going through and don’t plan on announcing right before reading off the votes that one of them is using the idol. But Earl and Yau-Man do know one of them is the target and that one will. Blowback takes out (probably) a stunned Alex and suddenly Earl’s gang has control of the game. Well, at least for a little while, because if they are not on the ball the same thing could happen to them with the other idol. If they are strategically aware, they would pick somebody they are reasonably sure not to have it to evict next – Boo or Stacy – and then they consolidate control at 5-3. If not, the game is back to 4-4 and highly unpredictable. Unless there is some real forward-thinking going on by Mookie. If this scenario goes down, he could realize the jig is up in his present alliance and he could defect back over to Earl’s gang, taking the idol with him, in essence creating a 6-3 situation with the chance of getting Dre and Cassandra to stay with him. This would have to be handled delicately because he would have to communicate with Earl’s gang to have them say he was going to be the target, when in fact would be (say) Edgardo, with the first warning Edgardo getting when (to him, mysteriously) Mookie fails to play the idol right before the vote. Edgardo might get suspicious thinking about it at the Losers’ Lodge, and probably it would be brought out during some Tribal Council he observed later on, so Mookie unlikely would be unable to prevent the Two Amigos from being alienated towards him, but this option may be his best. The idol would save him only once; unless he has the tongue of a Chris, he doesn’t have a lot of chance of sweet-talking some of Earl’s gang to split in his direction. And if there’s not a merge, the victims are clear. Stacy has been targeted by Earl’s gang at Moto, while at Ravu Dre clearly is the outsider not knowing the others have the idol. Regardless, unless there is some skillful play by the likes of the Two Amigos to ensure loyalty from Mookie and Dre, and prescience on their part to factor in a hidden idol, Earl’s position is becoming stronger and stronger, threatening to become the modern-day Tui Viti Cakobau of this season.
Strategic Overview of Survivor, Episode 8: The Lisi Has Left the Building by Jeffrey D. Sadow -- 04/06/2007 SOS! In voting out Lisi, it seems as if the Two Amigos have inherited some of her "strategic prowess." Now, with two idols in the mix, the time is ripe for Earl or Mookie to take control. Professor Sadow has the details. Looks like the Lisi’s strategic dullness, which perhaps exceeds that of any player in Survivor series history, rubbed off on Alex and Edgardo. Yes, she may have been poor at any and all challenges, and that was her strongest attribute she brought to the game, but despite it all, in the most important aspect of she equaled even the game’s greats like Rick, Yul, and Brian – she had a vote. For the Two Amigos, 100 percent of a Lisi vote is worth more than 90 percent of a Dre vote. Loyalty means more than anything else, and she gave it. One can see why they would be tempted to cut her loose, and why they might think letting Lisi go was not a problem. It is an aggravation to keep on an ally with no heart, and one might think she could fail them in a crucial moment. But the trick is to make sure safety is secured before the moment of failure – after they seized control of the game, and then she would be free to leave. Until then, carry her like you do a pal who had one too many draws from the yaqona bowl. Or, they could have a false sense of security now that they appear to be in a pact with Mookie holding onto a hidden immunity idol. They may believe they could afford to give up her vote with the idol on which to fall back under duress. The mistake here, of course, is assuming that it is the only one in the game, a baffling omission since they know another must be out there. Again, never assume luck will be on your side (that it will not be found) or that opponents will make mistakes (like not playing it) or else you blindside yourself. Or, they could believe that they have an alliance of six – all of them left on Ravu plus Boo and Stacy. Here, they needed to listen to about the only sensible thing the Lisi ever said – her Cassandra imitation about the present-day Cassandra. Surely the Two Amigos, knowing the dynamics of the old Moto, should know Cassandra will defect and that Dre is more likely to follow her lead than to stick with guys they core of which initially shunned him. Simply, they weakened their chances by not taking advantage of her hourly mood swing into positive territory and keeping her vote around, rather than getting rid of a potentially disloyal partner. Still, if a merge were to happen now, Dre would have to think long and hard about flipping because he would go from being on a 6-4 majority to forcing a 5-5 tie that may result with him leaving next. But at the same time he must consider what would happen if he allowed one of Earl’s group (Earl, Michelle, Yau-Man, Cassandra) to get lopped off because then he becomes disposable. This well may cause him to risk everything by triggering a tie. To make matters more interesting, he knows nothing of the two idols out there. Unwittingly, the distinct advantage goes to Earl’s gang because of this. Let’s say the merge happens and Alex, Edgardo, Mookie, Boo, and Stacy believe with Dre that they have the upper hand. Regardless of whether one of Earl or Yau-Man hold individual immunity, the other would be the target – but they have a double-secret pact to use the idol when needed. Meanwhile, Dre informs them of his plan to defect, and they tell him to feign loyalty to the others to the hilt. Thus, the ex-original Moto majority plus Mookie think they’re going through and don’t plan on announcing right before reading off the votes that one of them is using the idol. But Earl and Yau-Man do know one of them is the target and that one will. Blowback takes out (probably) a stunned Alex and suddenly Earl’s gang has control of the game. Well, at least for a little while, because if they are not on the ball the same thing could happen to them with the other idol. If they are strategically aware, they would pick somebody they are reasonably sure not to have it to evict next – Boo or Stacy – and then they consolidate control at 5-3. If not, the game is back to 4-4 and highly unpredictable. Unless there is some real forward-thinking going on by Mookie. If this scenario goes down, he could realize the jig is up in his present alliance and he could defect back over to Earl’s gang, taking the idol with him, in essence creating a 6-3 situation with the chance of getting Dre and Cassandra to stay with him. This would have to be handled delicately because he would have to communicate with Earl’s gang to have them say he was going to be the target, when in fact would be (say) Edgardo, with the first warning Edgardo getting when (to him, mysteriously) Mookie fails to play the idol right before the vote. Edgardo might get suspicious thinking about it at the Losers’ Lodge, and probably it would be brought out during some Tribal Council he observed later on, so Mookie unlikely would be unable to prevent the Two Amigos from being alienated towards him, but this option may be his best. The idol would save him only once; unless he has the tongue of a Chris, he doesn’t have a lot of chance of sweet-talking some of Earl’s gang to split in his direction. And if there’s not a merge, the victims are clear. Stacy has been targeted by Earl’s gang at Moto, while at Ravu Dre clearly is the outsider not knowing the others have the idol. Regardless, unless there is some skillful play by the likes of the Two Amigos to ensure loyalty from Mookie and Dre, and prescience on their part to factor in a hidden idol, Earl’s position is becoming stronger and stronger, threatening to become the modern-day Tui Viti Cakobau of this season.